Pierre Vindicated: A Post Election Analysis

Back in the 2021 general elections campaign, few were excited about or impressed with Philip J Pierre as the one leading the charge to get SLP back in the saddle.  Some thought that with Pierre, they were simply getting a watered-down version of Dr. Kenny Anthony. Yet he has emphatically silenced his doubters with not one, but now two landslide election victories, matching the feat of Dr. Kenny Anthony, who in 1997 swept aside a Dr. Vaughn Lewis-led UWP, and again in 2001, but with Dr. Morella Joseph at the helm.

I suspect that, for the prime minister, this second landslide victory (14-3) is sweeter than the first (13-4), not just because it represents an increase in the win margin, but because it was based strictly on his record, the performance of his administration, it was validation that voters are convinced that he is leading them in the right direction.

If Chastanet and his UWP had won this general election even by a one-seat margin, this would have been the greatest upset in the history of St. Lucian politics. How could voters have chosen the government that, as revealed in No Man’s Land: A Political Introspection of St. Lucia, many had considered the worst and most corrupt in the history of the country over the Philip J. Pierre government, which, based on my analysis in St. Lucia at a Crossroads, is the best-managed, best-administered, best-orchestrated administration in the history of the nation.  

 

UWP Prayers went Unanswered

Now the UWP didn’t just lie down and play dead. They put up a spirited fight. First, they turned to corruption, specifically the Banane Land controversy and the alleged CIP irregularities. But voters weren’t impressed. Closer examination left them indifferent or unconvinced. Moreover, any talk of corruption likely backfired on Deputy UWP leader Guy Joseph, whom many labeled the most corrupt politician in the nation’s history. And Chastanet’s CIP barbs against the SLP administration seemed to pertain more to his government than Pierre’s. Besides, he lost a CIP court case against Hilaire.

Then, as the homicide victims kept piling up, UWP turned to crime, which was no doubt smart politics, because with a government nearly devoid of scandals of any kind, which was doing all the right things, hadn’t taken one misstep, and which made sure everyone shared in the goodies, the escalating murder rate was its underbelly. This may have given faint-hearted SLP stalwarts a few sleepless nights because some would have recalled that back in 2021, it was a similar stance, but with regard to taxes, the UWP had pulled off, that had clinched the victory for them. But I think voters were unwilling to ditch SLP over the crime rate when the upward swing in the murder rate started under Chastanet’s administration. Moreover, with a buoyant economy, the lowest unemployment (last quarter of 2024) rate in the history of the country, and a prime minister who just kept on giving, voters were willing to cut Philip J. Pierre some slack, especially witnessing how much wherewithal he was bestowing on the police force to enable them to arrest the crime situation.

But UWP wasn’t done yet. In sizing up the near-perfect administration, they concluded that Dr. Ernest Hilaire and Richard Frederick were its Achilles heel. Dr. Hilaire had the Juffali scandal and the customs controversy in his past; he played a role in the Banane Land deal; and the CIP agency, which they accused of not operating above board, was under his ministry. But the Jufali affair seemed distant, and the customs affair, of which Hilaire was cleared, was probably viewed as pettiness on the part of Chastanet. Moreover, Dr. Hilaire was the star of Pierre’s administration. He was the most engaging and the best spoken. Under him, the tourism product had expanded, and tourism was performing better than ever. And even more impressive, the orchestration of national festivals and celebrations was turned into a science.  So it seems with Dr. Hilaire, the UWP was barking at the wrong tree.

Arguably, Richard Frederick, with his problematic record in public office, is the most obvious mushy spot in the SLP administration. And Chastanet didn’t miss a beat. Besides the Banane Land deal, which Frederick orchestrated, he skilfully combined the escalating murder rate with Frederick’s suspected connection with drug dealing to paint a picture of not only is SLP hapless in the face of the murder epidemic, but with Frederick in its cabinet, it has lost the moral authority to deal with the situation. But as was the case with Hilaire, UWP was barking at the wrong tree. Frederick, who, in terms of charisma and controversy, if not morals, reminds some of the great George Odlum, is considered by many as the hardest-working and best district rep in St. Lucia. So much so that in their opinion, he has turned Castries into a little New York.

Then Pierre gave Chastanet an opening. He didn’t complete and operationalize St. Jude Hospital before calling elections. Yet of all the administrations that had failed to complete the hospital, Pierre had the least excuse.  Allen Chastanet and Guy Joseph jumped all over that opening. Nothing else they had tried had gained traction. Finally, they had something to sink their teeth into.

Jumping at this opening, Chastanet displayed the height of desperation and gave an example of the shamelessness of politicians when he promised free tertiary education at SALCC, youth start-up grants of $25,000, civil servants’ permanent annual bonuses, and, the most shameful of all, he will complete a hospital that, other than equipment waiting to be installed and the tying up of loose ends, was all but complete. This, for a prime minister who discarded an opportunity (that Antigua quickly scooped up) for St. Lucia to become the fourth UWI flagship campus, who was perceived as favoring foreigners at the expense of St. Lucians, and who seemed to bend over backwards to dismantle programs geared towards the most vulnerable of citizens.

Overjoyed at this opening, Guy Joseph became his folksy best. A cartoon video making fodder out of the St. Jude’s situation made the rounds. Both Guy Joseph and the cartoon were not only funny and entertaining, but so far had made the most compelling case against SLP.

But it reeked of more desperation, grasping at straws. Moreover, the sudden, unexpected elections caught UWP off guard, unprepared, because, like many voters, they were expecting the prime minister to call elections only after the hospital was in service. This surprise likely offset any advantage the UWP gained from Pierre’s failure to deliver a hospital. Besides, the voters who were most concerned about St. Jude Hospital, were likely from Laborie and Vieux Fort North and South—Labour country. And they must have reckoned that, even if the hospital wasn’t ready this very minute to welcome patients, since the structure is complete, it will just be a matter of months before it opens for real. At least that’s more than Chastanet and Guy Joseph had delivered under their watch.

UWP Needs a Change of Leadership

Perhaps some UWP stalwarts’ biggest disappointment with the election results is that Allen Chastanet didn’t lose his seat. (Of course, a reading of No Man’s Land: A Political Introspection of St. Lucia, would have alerted them that Micoud South was the district most predisposed to being non-prejudiced about Chastanet’s skin tone and more tolerant of his perceived outrageousness.) They probably reckon that Chastanet and Guy Joseph remaining in the UWP leadership is holding the party back, preventing it from regrouping. I would agree. My sense is that, in the foreseeable future, St. Lucians are unlikely to be excited about a party featuring this political duo. Yet right now, the UWP, which in the past has had difficulty attracting candidates who are both educated and electable, has been able to attract quite a few candidates who fit that description. But voters are unlikely to rally around them if they are operating under the hegemony of Allen Chastanet and Guy Joseph.

Even at this election, under different leadership, the UWP might have won most of the close seats, because I suspect that, whereas SLP voters readily came out to vote, demoralised and disillusioned, a larger percentage of UWP supporters didn’t bother.

The Mystic of Philip J. Pierre

This was quite an intriguing and entertaining election. Partly because Pierre is a very unlikely prime minister. His hesitant, off-putting, uninteresting, uninspiring speech pattern would have been a no-no for even consideration for party leader. Yet he has won two landslide elections. It helped that initially, people probably had low expectations of him. It also helped that he had replaced a government considered by many to be the worst and most corrupt in their country’s history. If so, even if Pierre had been half as successful as he turned out to be, his record would likely stand well against Chastanet’s.

Pierre’s likability may be another factor that explains his success. At first glance, he may not be the most appealing prime minister we have had, but he is probably one of the most likable. Indeed, some of his very negatives, his speech pattern, for example, endear him to people. Besides, even though Pierre has won landslide elections, he still comes off as the underdog, and people like to root for the underdog.

In a conversation with a friend, I said that Pierre seems to have the knack of getting the best out of people, and that he has proven to be a better politician than Dr. Kenny Anthony, and that, in terms of political astuteness, outfoxing his opponents, he probably would give John Compton a run for his money. And what has probably contributed to the smooth running of his government is that he has refrained from micromanaging his ministers; he has given them latitude to run their ministries. And they have rewarded him for his trust and confidence in them by doing their best to exceed expectations.

My friend made a point I had not heard or thought of before. He said Dr. Anthony came to power with a team of largely young politicians who were yet to hold high office, much less that of cabinet minister. Dealing with such inexperience, Dr. Anthony had no choice but to do a lot of hand-holding. This was the only way he could minimize blunders and get the desired results.

However, the script is much different under Pierre. Most of the persons in his cabinet were either ministers under Kenny Anthony or were at a mature stage in their professional careers. In other words, Pierre’s cabinet is comprised mostly of seasoned people, some of whom may be just as capable or more capable than he to run the country.

If my friend is right, then Dr. Anthony can take some credit for Pierre’s success. The performance of Pierre and some of his ministers is partly a result of the training, guidance, and experience they gained under him.  

Kenny Anthony contributed to Pierre’s success in another way. Many of Pierre’s programs and policies are simply an extension of those of Dr. Anthony’s, and a return to some of what existed under Dr. Anthony before Chastanet discontinued them. Even the Youth Economy Agency, which Pierre seems to regard as the centerpiece of his administration, was operationalized under Kenny Anthony, but not given a name. In fact, I’m not convinced that Pierre has done much more than Dr. Anthony with regard to the nation’s youth. But this is where Pierre’s astuteness comes in: everything he implements, he organizes and presents in a way that maximizes visibility and, hence, political mileage, which is exactly the case with the establishment of a separate youth economy secretariat and the attribution of most youth-related business training and entrepreneurship initiatives to it.

Salient features of the 2025 Elections

With this electoral victory, Pierre hasn’t only matched Kenny Anthony in posting consecutive landslide victories, but this is the first time that a landslide victory was followed by an even greater one.   

One wouldn’t have thought there could be more registered voters than citizens, but the 184,654 registered voters for this general elections surpass the 184,000 population projection for 2025 and represent an increase of 10,322, or 6% from the previous elections.

However, voter turnout was down by 2.6 percentage points, from 51.1% in 2021 to 48.4% in 2025. Laborie, followed by Castries, registered the lowest voter turnouts.

SLP fared better in this election, both in terms of seats and slice of votes. Its share of votes increased by nearly 6 percentage points, from 55.7% to 61.6%, while UWP’s share decreased by 6.5 percentage points, from 42.1% to 35.6%.

Note, for the purposes of this summary, for both the 2021 and 2025 elections, I have lumped Stephenson King and Richard Frederick with SLP.

In Micoud South, Chastanet increased his winning margin from 57.1% to 57.8%. The same couldn’t be said of Guy Joseph. This time, he suffered a worse defeat, receiving just 41.5% of the vote, down from the 46.3% of the previous election.                             

Laborie (Alva Baptiste), followed by Castries East (Philip J Pierre) and Vieux Fort South (Danny Butcher), recorded the highest win margins, with Laborie receiving 80.5% of the vote, Castries East 75.9% and Vieux Fort South 73.5%. On the other hand, Dennery South (48.5%), followed by Soufriere (50.3%) and Choiseul (51.6%), won by the slimmest margins.

The prime minister won his seat even more emphatically than last time, garnering nearly 76 percent of the vote, compared to 65.3% in the previous elections. This result, along with his party not only gaining an additional seat but securing a larger slice of the popular vote, is indicative of a repudiation of the Allen Chastanet/Guy Joseph UWP and an affirmation of Philip J. Pierre and his SLP.

This election has likely strengthened Pierre’s government and representation in other ways. The addition of John Paul Estaphane (Babonneau), Lisa Jawahir (Castries South East), and Danny Butcher (Vieux Fort South) has increased the youthfulness of his government and likely its vibrancy and appeal to young people.    

Pierre Isn’t off the Hook

However, despite Pierre’s political astuteness and great stewardship of the economy and the nation’s resources, there is one glaring hole in his governance, the continued neglect of Vieux Fort. This is a huge mistake, because, as argued in The Promised Land and again in St. Lucia at a Crossroads, the advancement of St. Lucia hinges on the socioeconomic development of Vieux Fort.  Pierre’s path to true greatness lies with implementing a Marshall-like plan for Vieux Fort.

Maybe another contributing factor to Pierre’s success as prime minister is that, as an understudy to Dr. Anthony, he learned from his mistakes. Well, another Kenny Anthony mistake he should avoid is insufficient attention to  Vieux Fort and a lack of appreciation for the fact that the district’s biggest problem is a scarcity of jobs and economic activity. With a Marshall-like plan to rectify that situation, Pierre could paint his masterpiece on the Vieux Fort landscape and even surpass John Compton in greatness.

The good news is that there is help, which gives him and the freshly elected Vieux Fort district rep, Danny Butcher, a decided advantage over Dr. Kenny Anthony. The Promised Land, book one of the Vieux Fort Chronicles, published earlier this year, provides a roadmap to the development and governance of Vieux Fort.

In closing, I wish to direct your attention to my latest book, St. Lucia at a Crossroads, which extends my political treatise to a critique of St. Lucian politics and governance, a comparative analysis of St. Lucian administrations, and the direction Pierre should take and the areas he should focus on in his second term. St. Lucia at a Crossroads is already available at Amazon, and will be available in St. Lucia by month-end.